Sometimes, top players want to stay in state. Sometimes ... they don’t!
If you ask any college coach about their recruiting strategy, most of them will tell you how important it is to keep top talent close to home. Even if your home state doesn’t produce a ton of great recruits, that strategy makes sense! The players who grow up most familiar to your program, and who can visit most easily, are probably most likely to stick around.
And if you look around the state rankings in the 2019 recruiting class, that’s often true. If a true blueblood like an Ohio State or Alabama wants a kid from your state, they’ll probably grab at least some, but if you look at the top tens of most states, you’ll find kids going to hometown schools. Some of the best kids in Missouri tend to go to Missouri, some of the best in Massachusetts end up at Boston College, etc.
But for some states, the best recruits go lots of places that are not ol’ State U. For 2019, here were the states that were most generous in sharing their wealth.
Arizona
This was a pretty good year for Arizona prep football. The best player, QB Spencer Rattler, was a five-star, and another five players were considered consensus blue-chip recruits.
But despite two power conference programs in the state, you have to go down to the 247Sports Composite’s No. 17 player in Arizona to find a prospect signed to the Wildcats or Sun Devils. Rattler signed with Oklahoma, but even schools that don’t typically recruit elite kids — like BYU, Boise State, Kansas State, and Cal — took higher-ranked Arizonans than the locals did.
Hawaii
You wouldn’t expect the hometown Rainbow Warriors to hold off USC, Washington, and Notre Dame. But the top 18 (!) recruits decided to go elsewhere, and schools like Washington State, Navy, UCF, and BYU grabbed higher-rated Hawaii recruits before the Rainbows. Very generous of Hawaii to share local talent with the Mainland!
Connecticut
The Nutmeg State is quietly decent, and big programs like Michigan have noticed. There were three blue-clip players from 2019, and it isn’t a surprise that they decided to go out of state.
But you have to go all the way down to the 17th-ranked player before finding a UConn signee. (There are a couple who could theoretically still sign with UConn, but it’s considered highly unlikely.)
Rutgers, Boston College, UMass, and Northern Illinois have higher-ranked in-state players. Heck, even Arizona does, making the Wildcats better at recruiting top New England talent than local talent.
UConn, I know it seems like I’m piling on here, but there is a better way...
Nevada
It shouldn’t be a surprise that many of Nevada’s best players look elsewhere. The two in-state programs, Nevada and UNLV, have historically struggled, and many Nevada families moved there from somewhere else.
The state’s two blue-chip recruits signed with Michigan and Washington, but you won’t find an in-state kid until the No. 15 player in the state, outside linebacker Kyle Beaudry, who signed with UNLV. Other schools who grabbed higher-ranked Nevadans include Idaho (an FCS team now) and New Mexico. Yikes.
New Jersey
Long the best state in the Northeast and one of the best outside the South at producing great college football players. Many analysts have pointed to this favorable geography as a reason to think positively about the future of Rutgers football. After all, there are so many great kids locally, so if they can just do a little better in-state, who knows how talented they could be?
Well, we won’t find out next year.
The top player is off to Alabama. Not much you can do about that.
The next three are going to Penn State, Ohio State, and Notre Dame. Tough for anybody to beat those recruiters.
But Rutgers didn’t sign any of the top 18 players in the state. Duke, Boston College, Pitt, UNC, and UCLA all signed higher-rated Garden State recruits.
Illinois
Illinois lags behind Ohio and Michigan in elite prep talent, but there are still plenty of very good high school players here. The best, in 2019, are mostly not staying in Illinois. The top nine players in Illinois committed to schools like Ole Miss, Iowa, Minnesota and Iowa State, before Northwestern grabbed their first at No. 10.
Honorable mentions: California and Florida
Virtually everybody recruits these states, and for good reason. They’re huge and produce some of the best players.
Typically, at least some of the best stay local. But instability at places like USC and Miami, an unusually poor season at Florida State, and new staffs at Florida and UCLA left the door open to other programs.
Just four of the top 20 recruits in California have signed with California schools, and UCLA doesn’t have any in the top fifty. Schools like Oregon, Washington, and Texas have been the main beneficiaries. The last few top unsigned players are expected to leave. A fifth, five-star Bru McCoy, originally signed with USC but has already transferred to Texas.
In Florida, the top six recruits went out of state (to Alabama, Georgia and Clemson). Miami has just two in the top 25, and Florida State has just one in the top 15. That’s not how things typically go.
Locking down your state is usually critical, but hey, nobody is perfect.
Alabama signed one of the best recruiting classes ever, but the two best recruits in the state? They’re going to Georgia, and the third best is going to Auburn.
Defending champ Clemson is unquestionably a recruiting powerhouse, but the three blue-chip kids in South Carolina? They’re going to South Carolina and Virginia Tech.
The best player in Michigan, a five-star offensive lineman than everybody would have wanted? He’s going to Wisconsin.
But usually, you want to at least get some of the best players in your state. It’s awfully hard to win if you can’t. Just ask Rutgers.