All but one Patriot wide receiver is facing free agency. So who will Tom Brady be throwing to at age 42?
When it comes to Super Bowl experience. the Patriots had a massive advantage over the Rams. New England had nearly 10 times more players who’d been to the big game before, and that edge helped dispatch an overwhelmed Los Angeles team in a 13-3 win.
But a big chunk of the players who helped push the Pats to their sixth NFL championship won’t be with the team in 2019 — and that could mean it’s time for a big offensive rebuild around a soon-to-be 42-year-old quarterback in Foxborough.
The Patriots will have plenty of decisions to make this spring. Julian Edelman, the reliable standby whose massive Super Bowl performance has suddenly vaulted him into Hall of Fame consideration (which is premature), will return for his age 33 season. After him, the New England world champion receiving corps could dissolve into the ether like Infinity War cosplay.
New England could lose nearly all of Tom Brady’s WR targets in 2019
A lack of top-line receiving talent played a major role in Brady’s regression from 2017 to 2018, though players like Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson were able to shine in stretches. The veteran passer may have an almost entirely new depth chart to break in this fall depending on how free agency shakes out.
Dorsett and Patterson are both entering free agency. So is Chris Hogan, who wasn’t able to take advantage of his team’s lack of playmakers and made last season his second-straight year of being unable to harness his 2016 breakout. Josh Gordon, the early-season addition who helped prop up the Patriot passing game by stretching the field, is also staring down an expiring contract — and unlike Dorsett, Patterson, and Hogan, his off-field issues put his football future in jeopardy.
Those four players made up more than 61 percent of Brady’s targets to wide receivers. That’s a lot, but it also shows just how much Brady relied on Edelman, especially considering he missed four games last fall to a PED suspension. Now Bill Belichick will have to replenish that depth to find players who can prevent defenses from constantly double-teaming Edelman. It’ll require a mix of in-house re-signings and outside hires.
Retaining Dorsett, a former first-round pick who hasn’t heard his number called often but still ranked first on the team when it came to catch rate (76.2 percent), would be an inexpensive way to keep some continuity behind Edelman. Patterson, useful as a kick returner and as a fill-in tailback after injuries to Jeremy Hill, Rex Burkhead, and Sony Michel, could also be a move that fits the team’s needs as long as it isn’t too expensive.
Holding onto those guys could be key, because the wide receiver market isn’t exactly overflowing with talent. Golden Tate, good for 25.3 yards per game after being traded to Philadelphia, may be the biggest-name unrestricted free agent available. Randall Cobb and Jermaine Kearse could be other underwhelming veteran selections, and if players like Demaryius Thomas, Allen Robinson, or DeSean Jackson hit the chopping block this spring they could also draw some interest from the Pats. (Or Adam Humphries could be the next undersized slot wideout to escape Florida and prosper in New England. That would be a very Belichick move.)
The Patriots could also turn to the draft to address their receiver needs, but that’s been a rare blindspot for Bill Belichick over the last two decades. New England will likely have four Day 2 picks in 2019, and that’d typically be a great place to target a rising pass catcher. The Patriots historic Round 2 and Round 3 wideouts, however, are a tragic list. After hitting on Deion Branch in 2002, Belichick’s brain trust has selected Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate, Taylor Price, and Aaron Dobson on what is now Day 2 of the draft. That group has fewer than 2,700 receiving yards between them in their careers.
Rob Gronkowski may not return either
Gronkowski considered retirement last summer, then battled injuries through one of the least productive seasons of his career. While he remained a powerful weapon in the postseason (13 catches, 191 yards in three games), he wouldn’t discuss his future in the afterglow of his third NFL championship. It’s not unreasonable to think a player with an injury history as long as anyone else in the league would retire on top of his sport at age 29.
If Gronkowski trades in team busses for party busses, the team will likely have to search for an outside hire to absorb his targets. Dwayne Allen has been a useful blocker since being acquired from the Colts, but he’s only recorded 13 receptions in his two years with the Pats. With a cap hit of more than $7 million looming, he could wind up released despite his value in the running game. Behind him, Cody Hollister, Ryan Izzo and Stephen Anderson could compete for a roster spot, but none look like an NFL TE1 early in their pro careers.
Belichick has been better at drafting tight ends, adding Gronk, Ben Watson, and — from solely an on-field perspective— Aaron Hernandez to his roster. There’s a solid crop of players who are projected to be available for the Patriots this spring. Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson are both talented pass catchers who can give the club a young, athletic building block at the position. Given Belichick’s connection to Iowa and its head coach Kirk Ferentz, it wouldn’t be surprising for the club to target either one of them. Same goes for Alabama’s Irv Smith.
The club also has to make a decision about Trent Brown
From 2001 to 2017, the Patriots had two men protecting Brady’s blindside at left tackle; Matt Light and Nate Solder. If Brown leaves in free agency this spring, New England could wind up starting two tackles in two years.
The largest player in football had his warts — his seven holding penalties were nearly double the the next-highest amount for a single player on the Pats offensive line — but he finished 2018 strong for a team that ranked second in the league when it came to protecting its QB. Left tackles get paid in this league, and a big money contract could scare New England away from ponying up the cash to keep Brown. That’s the decision they made last spring when it came to Solder, and since that worked wonderfully, it’s not too difficult to see it happening again.
Protecting a 42-year-old quarterback is paramount to New England’s success. The Patriots got all the way to the Super Bowl and won it thanks to dominant offensive line play that only allowed one sack in three playoff games (and that one sack was on Brady for holding the ball too long). But while Brown was a big part of that effort, he may be expendable. 2018 first-round pick Isaiah Wynn was originally penciled in to fill the team’s hole at left tackle, despite his lack of ideal size (6’2, 310lbs).
Wynn missed the entirety of 2018 with a torn Achilles’, but if the club thinks he’s ready to go that’ll put a hard cap on what the Pats are willing to spend on keeping the monstrous Brown around. LaAdrian Waddle, a 6’6 swing tackle who has started seven games the past two seasons in Foxborough, is also set to dive into the free agent pool. The Patriots could retain him at a lower cost than they would Brown, then leave blindside duties to to him and the second-year tackle.
Ultimately, this is nothing new for Belichick
The Patriots are facing plenty of turnover from their 2018 Super Bowl winning roster, but that’s nothing new for Belichick. His 2016 team lost contributors like Chris Long, LeGarrette Blount, Martellus Bennett, and Logan Ryan and still won the AFC. His 2017 team shed Solder, Danny Amendola, Dion Lewis, and Malcolm Butler, but hoisted the Vince Lombardi Trophy at the season’s close anyway. With Brady smoothing transitions for everyone, no team in the NFL has been better at reloading.
In 2019, the team’s emphasis will be on building around their veteran quarterback and restocking an understaffed receiving corps. That won’t be easy in a league that saw what surrounding passers like Jared Goff and Mitchell Trubisky with dynamic skill players can do for an offense, but New England has mastered the air of extracting maximum value from overlooked players in the past. The Patriots have big needs heading into their latest title defense — just don’t expect them to bring in too many big names to fill those holes this spring.