The 6 last men standing in the 2018 NFL MVP race

It looks like a two-man race between Brees and Mahomes, but there’s still time for veterans to crash the party.

The 2018 NFL regular season is over — and that means this year’s crop of MVP candidates only have one week left to make their cases.

Patrick Mahomes’ ludicrous sophomore season has made him a worthy favorite atop a pile of worthy quarterbacks. While his team is currently fighting off a two-game losing streak that challenges its supremacy atop the AFC, Mahomes has been his typically efficient self — 552 total yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions against a pair of playoff contenders in the Chargers and Seahawks.

Those games pit him against a pair of passers hoping to overtake him in the MVP race. Philip Rivers was able to gunsling his way past the Chiefs, but his hot streak ended at the hands of a smothering Baltimore defense that held him to his worst performance of the season. Russell Wilson, the man behind the Seahawks’ complete refusal to let 2018 be a rebuilding year, was even better than Rivers against Kansas City’s deficient D. He carried his team to a win over the AFC’s top seed in a game where Seattle trailed for fewer than six minutes.

But this year’s MVP race isn’t limited to teams within the Chiefs’ orbit. Drew Brees’ latest step toward the one major award he’s never won came in a comeback win over the Steelers that simultaneously pushed New Orleans to home field advantage throughout the playoffs and chopped away at Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes. Andrew Luck led the Colts back from the brink of disaster to overcome the Giants and make Week 17’s game against the Titans a de facto playoff game.

So who will prove most worthy — and can anyone catch Mahomes? Let’s take a deeper dive into this year’s crop of candidates.

Current 2018 NFL MVP odds

A lot of names on this list are either people we’d like to see win it and/or truly deserving names, but we all know that only goes so far when it comes to the actual voters this spring. So before we dig into a closer look at the candidates, let’s make a quick scan of the odds.

These are the four remaining players getting odds from BetOnline.ag, and were last updated prior to Week 17.

• Patrick Mahomes: -230
• Drew Brees: +145
• Philip Rivers: +2500
• Andrew Luck: +5000
• Russell Wilson: +5000

Now, let’s take a deeper look at the candidates — starting with the man at the top of the odds sheet.

The Chiefs’ second-year star: Patrick Mahomes, QB

Kansas City has stalled out late in the season, but it’s difficult to pin those struggles on Mahomes, who remains dominant behind center for the Chiefs. He was responsible for 32 points in his club’s two-game losing streak (five touchdowns and a two-point conversion), but hamstrung by what could be his team’s fatal flaw in the postseason — a defense that can’t stop competent teams.

Mahomes is the perfect quarterback for a team that’s playing from behind, which is exactly what the Chiefs and their lowest-tier defense need as the second season begins. The second-year quarterback can put up big points in a hurry, and his ability to buy time in the pocket is enough to make opponents think twice about depleting their secondary with blitzes.

He’s on pace for 5,100 passing yards and 51 passing touchdowns. Only one other man in league history has ever done that — Peyton Manning. And Manning was league MVP that year.

The Saints’ venerable veteran: Drew Brees, QB

Brees late-season slump came to an end against a Steelers defense that had shut down Tom Brady a week prior. While he only threw one touchdown pass in a 326-yard performance, it was a vital one — a two-yard strike to Michael Thomas that gave New Orleans a 31-28 lead late in the fourth quarter. Then he got the chance to prove he’s definitely someone’s dad during the locker room celebration.

Brees’ body of work makes him a worthy candidate, though it may not be enough to overcome Mahomes’ prolific season. He’s pushed the Saints to the top seed in the NFC behind a handful of amazing clutch performances in games against contenders like the Rams (346 passing yards, four touchdowns), Eagles (363 passing yards, four touchdowns), and Ravens (212 yards, two touchdowns). He leads the league in passer rating, and at age 39 and in the midst of what may be his last great chance to win an MVP award, he could be the favorite among voters interested in more than just statistics.

The man who may finally lead the Chargers to the promised land: Philip Rivers, QB

Philip Rivers has thrown as many interceptions his past two games (four) as he had from the beginning of the season to Week 10, but the Chargers haven’t suffered for his recent increase in momentary struggles. While the Ravens and their top-ranked defense were able to bottle him up, his comeback effort against the Chiefs will remain the headline on his MVP resume this winter.

Rivers has been solid across the board and has his perpetually snakebit team in position to steal the AFC’s top seed in Week 17. He probably isn’t going to lead the league in any meaningful statistic and might not set any career highs along the way, but he’s been as important as anyone on the field in 2018.

The man behind the Colts’ quest to field 2018’s finest revival: Andrew Luck, QB

No candidate in the league has a clearer indicator of his value than Luck. The 2017 Colts didn’t have him behind center and went 3-13, settling into the third overall pick in the upcoming draft. The 2018 team, which prominently features a recovered Luck, has rebounded from a 1-5 start and is currently one win away from a Wild Card bid.

A potential seven-win improvement is amazing, especially as Luck has powered Indianapolis from the league’s 31st-ranked offense to its No. 7 ranked unit. In Indianapolis’s 8-1 run to the brink of the playoffs, he’s completed nearly 70 percent of his passes, has a 20:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and most importantly, has exercised his dominion over the state of Texas with impressive victories over Houston and Dallas.

The man who refuses to let the Seahawks tank: Russell Wilson, QB

Wilson rebounded from last week’s upset loss against the 49ers (and no-doubt future MVP winner Nick Mullens) by giving the Seahawks their biggest win of the season against Mahomes and his Chiefs. While Chris Carson and a bruising running game kept Kansas City’s defense off balance, Wilson’s throws were the counterpunch that kept the Chiefs on the canvas even as they tried to rally for an improbable comeback in Washington.

Wilson’s playmaking has only been enhanced by a suddenly competent running game, and Sunday’s national broadcast should have brought some more eyes to what’s been a quietly magnificent season in Seattle. He’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in 13 of his 15 games this fall and multiple interceptions just once — way back in Week 1. He’s one more touchdown away from a career high and just needs a clean sheet against the Cardinals to end the season with a career low in picks. More impressively, he’s doing all this while being sacked more often than anyone else on the short list of candidates except...

The Texans’ second-year stud: Deshaun Watson, QB

Watson couldn’t rally his team to beat the suddenly-hot Eagles in Philadelphia Sunday, but he tried. Hooooo boy did he try.

The sophomore quarterback turned a 29-16 deficit with five minutes to play into a 30-29 lead at the two minute warning thanks to his uncanny ability to sense and escape pressure and his ludicrous arm strength downfield. Watson’s second season has been predicated on making smarter plays and being more patient in the pocket, and that’s paid off with an interception rate that’s dropped from 3.9% as a rookie to 1.9% this fall.

He’s been more accurate and more efficient in year two, shaking off any concern last year’s ACL tear would limit his passing game. And, like Luck, he’s got a great example of his value to bolster his MVP argument. The Texans were 1-11 in the games he didn’t start last season. They’re 10-2 in their last 12 games with them in 2018.

The once and former candidates

Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings

Khalil Mack, DE, Bears

Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints

Todd Gurley, RB, Rams

Jared Goff, QB, Rams

Aaron Donald, DT, Rams

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers