Undefeated NC State, explained

Dave Doeren and the Wolfpack lost a metric ton of NFL talent after a season of missed opportunities ... and got better? The Wolfpack are your CHAOS TEAM OF THE WEEK.

• On October 24, 2002, Philip Rivers completed 15 of 24 passes, T.A. McLendon rushed for 178 yards, and Terrence Holt both picked off a pass and returned a blocked punt for a score as No. 12 NC State destroyed Clemson. The Wolfpack moved to 10th in the AP poll. They then lost three in a row, all to unranked teams.
• In 1991, State moved to 11th after a win over defending national champion Georgia Tech. Next, the Pack barely got by I-AA’s Marshall, then lost to Clemson and Virginia.
• In 1974, coached by Lou Holtz, the Pack were 6-0 and 10th in the polls when they lost at unranked UNC by 19, then to Maryland for good measure.
• In 1967, they rose to third following an 8-0 start and a win over No. 2 Houston. They then scored 14 combined in road losses to unranked Penn State and Clemson.

The story of NC State is unrequited potential.

The Wolfpack live in a talent-rich area and have provided a stream of All-American talent and NFL draft picks: Rivers, Russell Wilson, and Roman Gabriel at quarterback; Mario Williams and Bradley Chubb at defensive end; Torry Holt and Haywood Jeffires at wide receiver; etc. Seventeen first-round picks in all.

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But despite all this talent, they have never — NEVER!— finished in the AP top 10. Every fan base in the country claims their program is cursed. Only one might actually be.

That’s why 2017 felt like such a missed opportunity. From my 2018 NC State preview:

[slams fist on keyboard] THAT WAS YOUR WINDOW. THAT WAS YOUR CHANCE.

Florida State had its worst team of the decade. Louisville’s defense was awful. Miami wasn’t fully weaponized. Hell, even Clemson was a step or two off of its 2016 pace.

You had seven draftees (plus whoever maybe gets drafted in 2019). And you lost four times. You let Clemson off the hook again. You lost to Wake Forest. You outgained South Carolina by more than 250 yards and somehow lost. With as much talent as you’ve ever compiled, you’ve lost seven one-possession games in the last two years.

The draft narrative wasn’t “Wow, look at the talent NC State is producing!” It was “How the hell did they only go 9-4 with all that talent? And what are they going to do now that it’s gone?”

State had seven players drafted from last year’s nine-win squad, including four defensive linemen. Chubb is in the running for Rookie of the Year. Nyheim Hines has 36 rushes and 31 receptions for the Colts.

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And yet, without all that departed talent, the Pack are 5-0, 16th in the AP poll, and 19th in S&P+ heading into the game of Week 8, a battle with third-ranked Clemson.

The last time they came to Death Valley, they had a shot to beat the eventual national champions but missed a field goal. They have played the Tigers super-tough for three straight years. Do they have a fourth in them?

After a shaky season opener against James Madison, the Wolfpack have handled their business, beating Georgia State by 34, a solid Marshall by 17 in Huntington, and top-50 Boston College and Virginia squads by a combined 19.

They have not necessarily looked the part of a title contender, but they have been better rounded than before, currently ranking in the top 30 in both Off. and Def. S&P+. (They were 21st on offense last year but somehow, despite the talent on the line, only 63rd on defense.)

Since a September battle with West Virginia was canceled because of Hurricane Florence, this is State’s first marquee game. Here’s what you need to know about this year’s Wolfpack:

1. The passing game is really damn good.

In 2017, Ryan Finley threw for 3,518 yards, and State ranked 17th in passing success rate. This year, despite the loss of Hines and do-it-all Jaylen Samuels, two solid safety valves, the Wolfpack are currently fourth in passing success rate.

Last year’s top receivers, Kelvin Harmon and Jakobi Meyers have combined for 63 catches, 853 yards, and three scores, but depth has come in handy. Sophomore Emeka Emezie had 13 catches in 2017 but already has 20 this year, and freshman Thayer Thomas has been an ultra-efficient possession option, catching 16 of 19 passes for 202 yards.

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With the veteran Finley leading the way, State has been brilliant at catching up to the chains. The Pack are fifth in passing-downs marginal efficiency; more impressively, they’re first in the country in blitz-downs success rate (second-and-super-long or third-and-five or more). They’re also first in third-and-long success rate, third in third-and-medium success rate, and third in overall sack rate allowed.

Finley’s quick release and a wealth of options have made the Pack blitz-proof. That’s good because the run game has mostly stunk. It showed some life against Boston College, with Reggie Gallaspy Jr. and Ricky Person Jr. combining for 196 yards and a 49 percent success rate, but State still ranks just 110th in rushing marginal efficiency.

Passing is the way to go against Clemson anyway. The Tigers have maybe the best defensive line in the country and rank second in rushing marginal efficiency allowed. They’re only 70th against the pass, though. If Finley is able to avoid pressure, he could find success.

2. The defense stiffens like crazy in the red zone.

Despite the turnover, NC State’s defense has improved in virtually every category this year. Granted, we’re only halfway through the season — we’ll see how much of that improvement can be sustained — but the Pack are up from 56th to 39th in success rate allowed. More importantly, they’ve improved from 63rd to fifth in points allowed per scoring opportunity (first downs inside the defense’s 40).

In this year’s team stat profiles, I am sharing a more extensive breakout of red zone stats. State aces pretty much all of them:

• 15th in success rate allowed between the 21 and 30
• 33rd in success rate allowed between the 11 and 20
• 14th in success rate allowed inside the 10
• eighth in success rate allowed on first-and-goal
• first in turnover rate inside the 10

Granted, relying on red zone turnovers over a long period of time is a fool’s errand, but even without the turnovers, the Pack have been tremendous at stopping opponents short of the goal line and at least forcing field goals.

They’re able to do so because of a front seven that is once again talented and disruptive: end James Smith-Williams and tackle Larrell Murchison each has six tackles for loss already (they’ve combined for six sacks and 12 run stuffs), and veteran linebacker Germaine Pratt has chipped in with 4.5 TFLs as well.

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Red zone stops have been important, however, because they’ve been letting opponents off the hook a bit on passing downs. They rank 27th in marginal efficiency on standard downs but only 62nd on passing downs. They’ve been vulnerable to draw plays due to kamikaze pass rushes (and youth in the secondary), and they rank just 92nd in third-and-long success rate allowed.

But they make tackles, force opponents to run extra plays, and eventually make a stop.

Finishing drives will be a massive key on Saturday.

Clemson’s pretty good at it (17th in points per scoring opportunity on offense) and should create a handful of opportunities.

Meanwhile, the Tigers are even better than State at stopping opponents short of the end zone — they’re second in points per scoring opp allowed. State will struggle to score touchdowns, but if the Wolfpack continue to force mistakes, they’ll yet again give themselves a chance at the upset.

Clemson is an obvious favorite. The Tigers are projected to win by 14.4 points per S&P+ and are 15.5-point favorites per Vegas.

But even if the Wolfpack were a bit disappointing overall, State has played Clemson really well in recent years. And after a week of mayhem and blood that shook up the national title race, State is the key to unlocking even more in Week 8.