Sunday Shootaround: The NBA thrives in the shadow of Cavaliers vs. Warriors

The only rivalry that matters returns on Monday night when the Cleveland Cavaliers visit Oracle Arena for the first time since completing their historic championship comeback. That’s a tough statement to accept for those of us immersed in the day-to-day fluctuations of a season that lasts half the calendar year, but it’s an accurate one. Everything that happens in the league gets filtered through a Cavs-Warriors prism, from transactions to team-building to collective bargaining agreements.

When a player like Kyle Korver becomes available, Cavs GM David Griffin pounces, mortgaging more parts of a future whose bill he may never care to pay. When a player like Kevin Durant becomes a free agent, Warriors GM Bob Myers wastes no time putting in place a plan that took years of planning and no small amount of good fortune to pull off. There is no tomorrow for either of these teams, only today and the immediate future. Griffin and Myers have both used that to their tactical advantage.

Other teams must operate on a different calculus. Should they go all-in on a move that may handicap them for years in an effort to take one more inspired swing right now? That’s the kind of question facing Toronto GM Masai Ujiri as he weighs whether there’s a trade that would truly alter his team’s equation against Cleveland. Or consider the dilemma of the other GMs, who must balance a need to be competitive with the realization that championship dreams may be better served in years to come.

The new CBA, meanwhile, will impose rules to entice franchise players to remain with the team that drafted them throughout their prime years. That’s a reaction to Kevin Durant’s decision to come to Golden State, which happened under rules that were in place as a reaction to LeBron James moving to Miami. The path to acquiring superstars who could compete with these two juggernauts is growing more narrow even as the new CBA attempts to level the playing field for the future.

The context is different, but this rivalry has become to this era what the Lakers and Celtics were to the ‘80s. The Cavs and Warriors are the axis points around which everything else revolves, and that has been a boon to the league. Rue the existence of superteams all you want, but the ratings reflect an intense interest that transcend normal NBA parameters. Their Christmas Day game registered the highest ratings in their time slot in a dozen years and their Finals broke records.

What makes this even more compelling is that the Warriors-Cavs rivalry shoots to another dimension when they meet on the court. Their encounters have become capital-E Events and every quote, subtweet, and side-eyed glance is tinged with melodrama and double meaning. The games have not only produced fantastic theater, they’ve had far-reaching consequences.

It was roughly a year ago when the Warriors went to Cleveland and beat the Cavs by 34 points. Within the week, David Blatt was out of a job and Tyronn Lue was elevated to the head coaching position. If the Warriors hadn’t blown a 3-1 lead in the Finals, who knows where Durant would be playing today, or if Kevin Love would still be in Cleveland. Even their considerable realities produce fascinating parallel universes.

As Klay Thompson put it to USA Today, "It's a good rivalry, and it's good for the NBA. It makes it more fun, you know? It's rare in pro sports you get rivalries like this, so we enjoy it, and we embrace it."

As they should. As we all should.

But what of the inherent issue that arises when two teams seem so clearly above the competition? The fear heading into the season was that the inevitable rubber match between the Cavs and Warriors would cast such a large shadow over the regular season that it would be rendered meaningless. That hasn’t happened as we hit the midway point and there are two primary factors at work.

The rise of the high-usage superstar

Long one of the league’s most creative scorers, Isaiah Thomas has raised his scoring average to over 28 points a game in only 33 minutes of action. Thomas can get in the lane with the best of them, and he’s adept at scoring among the trees and getting to the free throw line. That’s always been his bread-and-butter, but he’s also diligently subtracted his already low rate of long two-point shots with even more threes that he makes with even greater accuracy. In his sixth season, Thomas has become an efficency monster.

Part of the reason for IT’s scoring surge has been the addition of Al Horford. While not among the game’s best 3-point shooting centers, Horford’s enough of a threat that as he drifts beyond the arc and pulls defenders with him, Thomas has even more space to cast his magic spells. Watch a Celtics game, and there’s a decent chance Thomas will pull off a handful of scoring binges that will tilt the scoreboard.

This is the NBA right now. Pair a creative ball-handling wizard with an able-shooting big man who also happens to be a great passer, and go to work. Scoring is up to almost unprecedented levels and the rate of 3-point attempts keeps rising. As Zach Lowe wrote recently, it’s difficult to tell if we’ve reached the zenith of the pace-and-space era or if there’s even more room for offenses to create scoring chances.

In a bygone era when hand-checking and rough defense ruled, undermanned teams would slow the pace to a crawl and try to limit the amount of possessions. The thinking was that the fewer chances to score, the closer the score would be at the end. The modern-day counter is math: more shots, more threes, more opportunities to score and level the talent-gap.

It’s not just Thomas who has elevated his game this season. Look around at the ranks of ball-dominant guards currently putting up spectacular numbers. From James Harden and Russell Westbrook out West to the quintet of All-Star caliber point guards in the East, there’s never been a better time to be an empowered guard with a green light. That’s made for a fascinating MVP discussion (see this week’s List) and a surge in individual star power.

With that has also come an explosion of 50-point games. One night Thomas dropped 52 on the Miami Heat on only 26 attempts and the next evening Harden did him one point better when he went for 53 on the Knicks. Westbrook, as you may have heard, is averaging a triple-double and Kyle Lowry has one-upped his career season with an even better campaign. On and on it goes as every night’s slate of games offers the promise of even greater scoring binges.

This really comes down to an aesthetic argument. If ‘90s slowball was your thing, the current version looks absurd. (Shoutout to all the ex-players lamenting the state of the game.) If free-flowing offense is your ticket, then the current NBA product is an exhilarating joyride.

The next generation is fascinating

Every time Kristaps Porzingis pulls up from behind the arc, or Joel Embiid takes someone off the bounce we are witnessing the future in real time. The key phrase this year has been unicorn, a term that has been thrown around so much it’s begun to lose some of its appeal. The short definition is that of a big man who can step out and make threes, but its application extends to a wave of players who are fundamentally changing our perception of what big men can do on the court.

From Karl-Anthony Towns to Embiid and Porzingis we haven’t seen such an influx of versatile, talented big men since the mid ‘80s when Patrick Ewing, Hakeem Olajuwon, and David Robinson burst on the scene. And what of Anthony Davis, the old man of the group whose game has come together a year behind schedule, especially on the defensive end? Add in the wondrous talents of Giannis Antetokounmpo and the mind reels at the possibilities that await the league in a post-Cavs and Warriors future.

That’s the most interesting subplot of this season. In what should be another slog toward an inevitable Finals rematch, we’ve been treated to glimpses of what the future holds for us. Those next-wave players, emboldened by progressive coaching and tactics have been empowered to expand their games and test their limits. All the while, they’re building equity in their franchises and their own bank accounts. This isn’t so much a transition year as a nurturing playground.

There will always be franchises that are smarter, more adaptable, and downright luckier than the rest. There will always be a handful of players who are just a cut above their colleagues. Try as it might, the NBA will never be able to enforce parity the likes of which we see in the other sports. But it is evolving toward a fundamentally different future. That it can take place in the shadow of what has become a rivalry for the ages bodes well for the future, and the present.

As we hit the midpoint of the season it’s as good a time as any to check in on the major award races.

MVP -- LeBron James: Russell Westbrook and James Harden are the presumptive favorites (or is it Harden first and then Westbrook?), but my hypothetical vote still belongs with LeBron. He’s still clearly the best player in the game and that’s not just by reputation and acclaim. He’s also having a fantastic season. His shooting percentages are up and so are his playmaking numbers. LeBron makes everyone around him better, whether it’s Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love or Jordan McRae and DeAndre Liggins. Harden or Westbrook (or Westbrook or Harden) may ultimately prevail here, but the King stays the King.

Rookie -- Joel Embiid: This is the easiest pick on the board, complicated only by the knowledge that Embiid is in his third season with the 76ers but still counts as a rookie based on his injuries. That argument would hold more merit if there was a worthy contender from this year’s freshman class, but there isn’t one. Top pick Ben Simmons hasn’t been on the court yet and the others range from role players to early stages of development. Embiid is also more than the default choice, he’s a potential franchise player. The pickings are slim beyond Embiid with steady second-rounder Malcolm Brogdon and emerging sharpshooter Buddy Hield the best of the underwhelming rest.

Sixth Man -- Eric Gordon: Second only to Steph Curry in made 3-pointers, Gordon has rejuvenated his career after a rocky conclusion to his star-crossed tenure in New Orleans. He’s averaging better than 18 points per game, tops among qualified reserves, and the Rockets are almost 10 points better than their opponents per 100 possessions when he’s on the court. This is a fun race with the usual collection of bench scorers (Lou Williams, Jamal Crawford) and an influx of traditional big men starters like Greg Monroe and the ageless Zach Randolph who have moved to reserve roles. Throw in the essential Patrick Patterson, along with the likes of Tyler Johnson and Enes Kanter and there’s no shortage of candidates.

Coach -- Mike D’Antoni: Gregg Popovich’s continued excellence is a given and Steve Kerr’s ability to blend superstars has been an underplayed storyline this season. There’s also been quality work from Dwane Casey, Ty Lue, Brad Stevens, and David Fizdale. No team, however, has surpassed expectations like D’Antoni’s Rockets and no coach has created a system that has allowed his superstar to flourish the way Harden has this season. Houston’s team defense also falls in the acceptable range, a far cry from its expected abysmal ranking. The Rockets aren’t just a surprise team, they’re legitimately damn good, and D’Antoni is enjoying a sideline renaissance.

Defensive Player -- Rudy Gobert: The last few years have seen the rise of shutdown wing defenders like Kawhi Leonard and the emergence of the versatile player personified by Draymond Green. It may not be a sport for traditional centers anymore, but the bigs are still vital in constructing top-flight defenses. I wrote at length about Gobert’s emergence in last week’s Shootaround, and there are a ton of metrics that bolster his case. The Jazz are monsters when he’s on the court, teams rarely challenge him anymore, and he’s the leader in ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus stat. Green, especially, presents a compelling counter-argument but the vote thus far is with the Stifle Tower.

Most Improved -- Giannis Antetokounmpo: I’m slowly coming around to the merits of this award, even if no two definitions of Most Improved are exactly alike. Do you reward the overwhelmed rookie who becomes a solid role player with more minutes and experience, or the solid player who blossoms into a star? The latter is the toughest leap to make and no one has done this half-season quite like Greek Freak. He’s gone from League Pass curiosity to arguably the second-best player in his conference. His competition for that hypothetical crown is Jimmy Butler, who has his own strong case. Can a player win Most Improved twice?