Clik here to view.
Is this a good thing?
These 2019 NBA playoffs have been quite dramatic and exciting. Three stars have really stood out for the right reasons: Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. For two of those players — Durant and Leonard— we have no idea where they will play next season.
Is that a good thing for the NBA, or is it uncomfortable and unfortunate?
Let’s explore that latter position first. The fact Leonard might leave the Raptors at the end of the season certainly made Toronto’s Game 4 against the rising 76ers on Sunday more dramatic in the sense that doom appeared on the franchise’s doorstep. Leonard has been so good that he’s keeping the Raptors in the series and the postseason. That’s not exactly how a team would want to build a case for the star in question to re-sign in the offseason: you’d want to offer lots of help and support to prove to him that supernatural performances aren’t required to get out of the second round. The fact that Kyle Lowry, the forever Raptor, and some other veterans on the team don’t know if this is a one-season fling or something more must make things generally uncomfortable in these pressurized moments. Clearly, little along these lines ever bothers Leonard. But the others? Maybe.
The Warriors, of course, have been a textbook example of the malignant impacts uncertainty and a noncommittal star can have. This was made real in the early-season Durant and Draymond Green flare-up, and it continues to be a major part of the conversation about the Warriors. Durant has lashed out at media who dare ask about anything adjacent to free agency (despite Durant choosing to sign a series of one-year deals with the Warriors and leaving the franchise believing he might bolt after a third title run).
Meanwhile, the NBA as a business can’t really, truly sell Toronto or the wider audience on Leonard as a Raptor knowing full well he might be a Clipper or Laker or whatever in a few months. The Warriors can only sell the moment with Durant — he’s already a persona non grata among Stephen Curry’s biggest fans and will be subject to ultra-weird reactions back in the Bay Area if he should leave.
But then there’s the hope available thanks to the NBA’s forever free agency.
This means hope for teams that expect to compete for Durant and Leonard’s services — good teams (Clippers), bad teams (Knicks), iffy teams (Lakers) — as well as teams that hope to rise in the vacuum created by the shuffling (Rockets, Blazers, Nuggets, Sixers, Celtics). The NBA front office has continually touted the benefits of competitive balance, a league table in which every team enters the season able to make the playoffs and there are a wide range of title contenders. That second part has struggled under the weight of the superstar team-up trend, but we’ve gotten closer to that first objective. The only thing holding it back is the power of the NBA draft, but the league has sought to incrementally reduce the incentive to chase high picks (starting with lottery reform in place for this season).
Half the league’s players and a third or so of the NBA’s stars being eligible to change teams every summer is good for competitive balance. It creates substantial unrest, but to the broader benefit of teams seeking to build decent rosters. The Nets— a team unable to rely on high draft picks — are a great example of this.
There’s also the matter of a vibrant free agency keeping enthusiasm for and attention on the NBA deep into the offseason. How the NBA monetizes the 12-month season remains a bit of a mystery — is it simply a virtuous cycle of attention in July (when there are fewer ways to financially support the league) causing higher attention in November? Or is a substantial chunk of revenue locked in around July as excited fans buy season tickets and merchandise after their teams pull off free-agency coups? The expanded offseason attention in recent years obviously can’t be a bad thing. It’s just harder to discern in a concrete sense why exactly it’s so good.
There’s little indication that the league wants to move away from the 12-month season — fans and the media love the off-court machinations every bit as much as the games, so there will be only minor outside agitation to change things. But it’s pretty weird that we’re watching Durant and Leonard wreck opponents with no collective sense where they’ll be in a year’s time. The fluidity of power in the NBA is real.