We have that and more in Tuesday’s NBA newsletter.
No one seriously claimed that NBA draft lottery reform killed tanking. All it did in a practical sense was change the inflection points and make the most egregious style of tanking for the No. 1 pick less effective. That is what we have witnessed in this first season of the new odds: teams are still bad on purpose, but the game-to-game tanking has largely subsided and there hasn’t been a mass deactivation of stars on the worst teams.
But without true structural changes to the NBA Draft, opportunities for situational tanking can’t be erased. Take the Mavericks, for example. The Mavericks are not tanking, and in fact beat a playoff team by 20 points on Monday. But Dallas should absolutely tank right now. The incentives are all there.
The Mavericks owe their pick to the Hawks due to the Luka Doncic/Trae Young trade. But Dallas keeps it if it lands in the top five. The Mavericks would obviously much prefer to have a top five pick and send a worse pick in a future year. The Hawks would probably like the No. 6 pick right now, when it knows Dallas is not very good.
The Mavericks are currently tied for the 6th-worst record in the NBA. Dallas could legitimately finish anywhere from the 5th-worst to the 9th-worst (though the odds of nabbing the 5th worst record shrunk pretty substantially with that win over Philadelphia). If the Mavericks do end up as the fifth worst team in the NBA, they would enter the draft lottery with a 44 percent shot at a top-5 pick that they would then keep. If the Mavericks end up as the ninth worst team in the NBA, they would enter the draft lottery with a 20 percent shot at a top-5 pick that they would then keep.
For every place the Mavericks rise in the standings, they lose about 6-7 percent off their odds of keeping their pick. Given how tight the teams are in the standings -- the No. 5 Hawks have 28 wins and the Mavericks, Pelicans, Grizzlies and Wizards all have 31 or 32 wins -- minor differences in performance the last week of the regular season will have profound impacts on two teams’ short-term futures.
The Mavericks aren’t tanking, or if they are, they are doing a terrible job at it. One could argue they began an institutional tank when trading starters for a star with a torn ACL a few months ago. But in terms of situational tanking, the evidence isn’t there. They should rethink this and try to lose out for their own sake.
Scores
Pistons 102, Pacers 111
Heat 105, Celtics 110
Bucks 131, Nets 121
Bulls 105, Knicks 113
Magic 109, Raptors 121
Blazers 132, Timberwolves 122
Sixers 102, Mavericks 122
Hornets 102, Jazz 111
Cavaliers 113, Suns 122
Schedule
All times Eastern. Games on League Pass unless otherwise noted.
Lakers at Thunder, 8, TNT
Hawks at Spurs, 8:30
Rockets at Kings, 10
Nuggets at Warriors, 10:30, TNT
Links
I wrote about how NBA policy has been working on how to deal with superstars like Zion Williamson for a long time given how wildly they skew the incentives to compete. Speaking of which ... no, not even Zion is invincible. It didn’t help that Coach K failed him. Nick DePaula previews the sneaker company bidding war for Zion.
Is Danilo Gallinari the most underappreciated player in the NBA?
The case that narratives about Devin Booker chasing stats in a meaningless close to the Suns’ season are bogus.
The financial implications of John Wall’s terrible injury for the Wizards.
LeBron is not joining USA Basketball for the FIBA World Cup this summer. The question is whether he’ll arrange his mogul life to be available for the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo.
Kenny Atkinson and crew will get extensions in Brooklyn.
Inside the mind of Jaylen Brown.
R.I.P. Nipsey Hussle. Tribute from the Clippers. Tribute from the Lakers. Tribute from the Warriors.
Be excellent to each other.
