Ranking the NFL playoff teams by how much we trust them

From the Saints to the Eagles, this is how confident we are in each of the remaining teams to make it to the Super Bowl.

The 2018 NFL season was one of those years when all bets were off. Some of the teams we had pegged for playoff appearances and perhaps deep runs didn’t even make the postseason (looking at you, Minnesota and Atlanta). The Browns became one of the most exciting teams in football. Even the bottom feeders like the Raiders were able to give us moments of fun play and competence.

That could suggest we’re in for a more unpredictable postseason. The teams with No. 1 seeds, the Saints and Chiefs, are coming off heartbreaking playoff losses from a season ago. Meanwhile, the perpetual Super Bowl participants Patriots don’t feel like the unbeatable guard of the AFC like they have for the past one billion years. So maybe this is the perfect year for a lower-seeded team to go on a run.

Each team has one factor in its favor that could propel it to a win against any opponent this postseason. Each team also has one factor working against it that could kill its Super Bowl hopes immediately. As such, it’s hard to have full confidence in any team to win the Lombardi Trophy this season. But come the night of Feb. 3, one franchise will be showered with confetti in Atlanta, forever crowned as Super Bowl LIII champs.

We did our best to determine which teams in the NFL playoffs are most, and least, trustworthy of being the one to go all the way. So far, we’ve updated the list throughout the Wild Card Round.

1. New Orleans Saints

The Saints have been one of the best teams in the NFL this season, and we’ve seen two versions of them during their march to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They started off the season by having an unbelievably explosive offense, averaging 37 points per game over the first 11 games.

Then New Orleans’ offense hit a bit of a rough patch. From Week 13 to 15, the Saints averaged 16.7 points per game, but they were still able to go 2-1 in that stretch. The defense took over and carried the team, holding opponents to just 12 points per game in the three-week span.

The last time the Saints were in the playoffs, they lost in crushing fashion: on the final play of their Divisional Round matchup with the Minnesota Vikings, famously known as the Minneapolis Miracle.

This time, the Saints will be hosting every NFC team they face. Being able to stay at home in the Superdome should be extremely beneficial to their cause. In the Sean Payton-Drew Brees era, New Orleans has a 5-0 record at home in the playoffs. This season, Brees has completed nearly 77 percent of his passes and has thrown 25 of his 32 touchdowns in a dome.

The Saints have a top-three offense — they averaged 31.5 points per game — and have a defense that has the high-end talent to play well in spurts. That combined with their home-field advantage throughout the playoffs makes them the most trustworthy team right now.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs boasted the most explosive offense in the NFL this year and they likely have the league MVP in second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who threw an insane 50 touchdowns in his first year as a starter. Their offense is so overwhelming that they’ve been able to cover up for a poor defense most of the year.

For what it’s worth, here’s how the Chiefs offense compares to their defense, according to Bill Connelly’s advanced statistics.

The defense at times has been their Achilles’ heel. They got mauled on the ground by the Seahawks late in the season, lost a Thursday night game at the last second to the Los Angeles Chargers, and even gave up 33 points to the Oakland Raiders on the road in Week 13.

Kansas City has another cross to bear. The team hasn’t won a home playoff game in 25 years — when Joe Montana led the Chiefs to a win against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

That offense, though. It’s enough to make you believe that this year will be different for the Chiefs.

3. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams looked like the best team in the NFL over the first half of the season. They had a couple hiccups over the final eight games, going 5-3, but that slump could be behind them. This is still an incredibly formidable team.

Their No. 2-ranked offense is an elite group, even with some of the slipups they had in the middle of the season. Jared Goff threw 32 touchdowns, while Todd Gurley scored 21 total touchdowns to help the Rams finish 13-3 on the year. Gurley’s been hurt and missed the final two games of the season, but that extra rest that killed your fantasy football team’s playoff run, along with the Rams’ bye through the Wild Card Round, means he should be back to full strength by the time LA returns to the field.

The defense has been a bit inconsistent this year. Aaron Donald is likely going to win the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award after tallying an eye-popping 20.5 sacks at the defensive tackle position, but the rest of the defense isn’t as reliable.

Luckily for the Rams, Donald is so good that his very presence is enough to trust the defense to come up with a few stops to help them advance in the playoffs. Whoever they play in the Divisional Round better be on the lookout for No. 99.

4. Los Angeles Chargers

Historically, the Chargers have been more cursed than contender, but this year’s team is legitimately good. They did get crushed at home by the Baltimore Ravens, but they beat the Ravens at their own brand of grind-it-out, ugly football on Wild Card Sunday for a 23-17 win.

Philip Rivers is chasing a Super Bowl win that would immortalize him among the greats to ever play quarterback, but in the meantime he’s having one of his best seasons yet. His 105.5 passer rating ties a career high, his 8.5 yards per attempt are the third-highest of his caree, and he’s chipped in 32 touchdowns. Rivers led an offense that ranked fourth in points per drive with 2.4.

The defense isn’t dominant, but LA has a secondary capable of making plays in a pinch, plus the scary duo of Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa rushing the passer. The Chargers have the talent to make a deep run in the postseason — now, they just have to get past the Patriots in New England. The good news for the Chargers is that they’re 9-0 away from Los Angeles this season.

5. New England Patriots

The Patriots have looked as shaky as ever in an 11-5 season that exposed some real flaws in Bill Belichick’s team. Not only were those 11 wins the team’s fewest since 2009, but all five losses came against teams that failed to make the playoffs. Bad teams like the Jaguars and Lions were able to exploit New England’s weaknesses in comfortable wins — namely, attacking the Pats’ lack of receiving options and subpar rushing defense.

Counterpoint: it’s the Patriots, and they still have Belichick and Tom Brady. They’re guaranteed at least one home game this postseason, where they haven’t lost since October 2017. And while Brady’s magic has run out in vital points in a couple big moments lately — against the Eagles in Super Bowl 52 and in Pittsburgh in Week 15 — he’s still Touchdown Tom. Never count out Touchdown Tom.

6. Indianapolis Colts

No team in the league has been hotter than Indianapolis, who turned a 1-5 start into a 10-6 season and the final wild card berth in the AFC. They kept that hot streak alive on Saturday, embarrassing the Texans in Houston. Now, they’ll get a chance to play the Chiefs next weekend, which might be a tougher game for Kansas City than you’d think for a matchup between the No. 1 and the No. 6 seed.

The return of Andrew Luck and the punishing impact of young defensive stars like Darius Leonard and Malik Hooker accelerated what once looked like an arduous rebuild into a postseason return.

But a closer look at the Colts’ advanced stats suggests this is a team that’s good in some areas, bad in others, and just sorta mediocre in most:

That doesn’t help salt away the nagging feeling this team gave up 42 points to the Jets back in Week 6. Bad passing offenses — the Jaguars and Giants, most shockingly — have been able to put up big numbers against the Indianapolis secondary. That’s not good news for a Colts team set to face a murderer’s row of great quarterbacks in the postseason.

However, Colts fans are riding high after a stretch of nine wins in 10 games. Nearly 98 percent of those who responded in a FanPulse survey expressed confidence in where the team was headed.

7. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys survived their wild card game against the Seahawks, but we still have questions.

Did the Amari Cooper trade really change this team’s DNA this much? Dallas was 3-4 when it acquired the Pro Bowl wide receiver and slipped all the way to 3-5 before rallying to take control of a wide-open NFC East. And while Cooper added a much-needed extra dimension to Dak Prescott’s passing offense, it was the club’s defense that stood up strongest in the team’s biggest win of the season — a primetime 13-10 upset of the Saints in Week 13.

But that Dallas defense has allowed more than 25 points per game in the last four weeks — though the Cowboys went 3-1 in that stretch. The defense let Seattle back in late, only saved by a terrible Seahawks onside kick.

Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott had big efforts erased in their first playoff appearance thanks to a ridiculous comeback from Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. They were both pivotal to the Cowboys’ 24-22 win over the Seahawks, together accouting for all three Dallas touchdowns. But if they’re slowed down at all, who can step up?

Cowboys fans might be a little wary of getting their hopes up. Among playoff teams, they had the second-lowest confidence in the direction of their team after Texans fans — 64.7 percent, according to a FanPulse survey.

8. Philadelphia Eagles

The laws of physics and time do not apply to Nick Foles. He is football’s God particle. The Eagles could be No. 1 on this list. They could be No. 8. Any ranking would be simultaneously correct and incorrect.

Scratch that, Foles isn’t football’s God particle. He’s football’s Schrodinger’s Cat.

That defense is a little concerning, too.

As impressive as Philadelphia’s run back to the playoffs was, and their double-doink win over the Bears was, they haven’t quite dug themselves out from “underdog” status yet. And that might be just the way the Eagles want it.