Liverpool’s loss to Manchester City proved they aren’t immaculate, and resuscitated what had begun to look like a dead competition.
Manchester City beat Liverpool on Thursday night, and in doing so, ended the last unbeaten run in the Premier League and kept the English title race just about alive. A 10-point gap would have been game over; seven would have been last life, empty health bar, no ammunition. But four? Four we can work with.
(City also gave Arsenal fans an excuse to post pictures of Arsene Wenger and the Invincibles all over Twitter, but that’s not important, because they were all planning to do that anyway.)
The remaining league games fall into roughly three categories. There are the big games, which are the ones against Big Teams that also want to qualify for the Champions League. You know about those.
There are also the gimmes, which are the games against struggling sides who have other things to be worrying about, and really just want to get through the day without mortally wounding their goal difference.
Most interesting is the third category, the potential banana skins. These are the tricky games that title-chasers should glide through, but that can, if the footballing gods wish it, lead to slip-ups. Maybe even full pratfalls. Dropped points, either way.
City have already fallen foul of a couple of these, losing to Crystal Palace and Leicester. Let’s peer into the future, and see where else, if anywhere, our two title chasers might fall on their faces.
January
With impeccable timing, the Premier League now takes a well-earned break. First comes the FA Cup third round — Liverpool travel to Wolves, City host Rotherham — and then comes the first leg of the League Cup semi-finals. City got the fortunate draw here, avoiding Chelsea and Spurs and getting matched against Burton Albion, who are 13th in League One.
There will be squad rotation. There will be resting.
When the big league returns, it does with two games that would, under normal circumstances, be considered potential banana skins: Liverpool are away at obdurate Brighton, while City host Wolves and their lovely football. Nuno Espirito Santo’s men held the champions to a draw in the reverse fixture.
But the ordinary rules of banana skins don’t seem to be applying this season. Certainly not to Liverpool, who have so far only dropped points to Chelsea, Arsenal, and City, twice. City’s losses against Leicester and Palace, and their draw with Wolves, suggest that they are a little more vulnerable to the occasional “WHOOPS OH NO WE’VE FALLEN OVER,” but by the standards of most Premier League seasons, they’ve been ridiculously consistent.
There are two more Premier League games before the month is out, sandwiched on either side of the FA Cup fourth round. Liverpool entertain both Crystal Palace and Leicester at Anfield — see above, re: banana skins — while City should have more than enough to get past Huddersfield and Newcastle, both away.
Perhaps this is what January will be for, ultimately: a test to see if Liverpool, this season, are bound by the normal rules of banana skins, clowning, and classic farce. If they are, then the race really will be alive. If not, well, City will be left with the unenviable hope that a team floating six inches above the ground will somehow trip over themselves.
(Spurs? Who?)
February
Particularly since Liverpool begin February with winnable games away at West Ham, who can’t really defend, and Bournemouth, who really can’t defend. Meanwhile City host Arsenal and Chelsea on consecutive Sundays. On current form, you’d expect City to win both, since Chelsea are subsiding into a discontented argument again, and Arsenal have started Arsenalling. Again.
If City do drop points in either or both games, then we can probably just call it then and there, and start getting hyped about the relegation battle.
Or not! Because February, as well as a possible FA Cup fifth round, sees the return of the other great factor in all title races: the Champions League. Not so much a banana skin as a vast fruit salad, sprinkled with gold dust and drenched in Gazprom, luring careless teams away from their bread and butter with the promise of shinier prizes.
Focus on me, it sings, this singing fruit salad. Use your squad. Rotate your back four. Refresh your midfield. You want me. You want me more than anything ...
Ahem. Liverpool host Bayern Munich, who haven’t been at their all-consuming best this season but have still got some decent players. City, meanwhile, visit Schalke, who are 13th in the Bundesliga at the time of writing. City is more likely to go through, then, but you suspect Liverpool’s fans won’t be too upset if they end up dropping out of Europe. They last won that in 2005, after all, whereas they haven’t won the Premier League since it was called Division One. Some midweek breaks might be just the thing.
February ends with the first possible fixture rearrangement: if City make it past Burton to the League Cup final, then their trip to Everton will have to be moved. Meanwhile Liverpool visit Old Trafford, a game that they will win 10-7. The month then concludes with winnable home games (bana— no, shut up) for both sides, as Watford go to Anfield and West Ham to the Etihad.
(Tottenham? Tottenham? Hmm, I recognise the name. Can’t place it though.)
March
A caveat, before we proceed: this is the point of the season where television, cup competitions, and fixture clashes contrive to make a mess of the schedule. Every game between now and the end of the season has to take place at some point, but precisely when is up for negotiation. The only certainty is that one of Pep Guardiola or Jurgen Klopp is going to get very angry about having to play a game on a Friday lunchtime.
The Merseyside derby opens the month, and a lot has happened since Everton went to Anfield and played excellently for 95-and-a-half minutes, before Jordan Pickford’s brain fell out of his head. Everton have faceplanted, whereas Liverpool have kept on rolling.
But then we’re two months in the future by this point, so let’s confine our predictions to: Liverpool will be favourites both here, then at home to Burnley. So will City, away at Bournemouth and at home to Watford.
Then it’s the second legs of the Champions League last 16. Liverpool go away to Bayern, in a game that seems likely to be pretty interesting; City’s second leg against Schalke may not be quite as poised. Finally, on the domestic front, the FA Cup quarterfinals may lead to some more rearrangements. Liverpool are due to visit Fulham, while City should be playing a Manchester derby. That’s going to end 11-7, mind, so it doesn’t really matter when it actually gets played.
Then there’s an international break. Expect a rash of mysterious, unspecified, and ultimately minor muscle complaints to break out across the northwest of England.
And straight after the break? Why, it’s those plucky Tottenham Hotspurs! Here they come, trekking up to Anfield. Given that Liverpool have so far only dropped points to fellow Big Sixers, this game is going to get hyped up to the breaking point ... and maybe it won’t be the Spurs who break? Maybe.
City are away at Fulham. That’ll be nice for them.
April
April is the cruellest month, breeding cup competitions out of the dead land, mixing memory and desire, stirring dull aches with spring sprains ...
Could go either way, this one. On the face of it, Liverpool’s run of games — Southampton away, Chelsea at home, Cardiff City away, Huddersfield at home — doesn’t look too onerous. But if they’re still in the FA Cup, then the Southampton game will be moved for that, and if they’ve made it past Bayern, there’ll be a Champions League quarterfinal on either side of the Chelsea game.
(We’re not saying Klopp should throw the cup games. That would be immoral. We’re just saying that he’ll be forgiven if he picks Bruce Grobbelaar in goal.)
City have a similar conundrum, of course, though their trickiest league game — Spurs at home — comes after any Champions League quarterfinal second leg. Otherwise they’ve got Cardiff at home, and Burnley and Crystal Palace away. Need to be winning all those.
Also worth noting, there’s a temptingly empty mid-week window at the end of this month. Something could get dropped in there. A Manchester derby, maybe.
May
And now, the denouement. The Champions League semifinals begin as April ticks into May. In between legs one and two, Liverpool visit Newcastle, where Rafa Benitez will pick a back six of Narrative, Narrative, Narrative, Narrative, Narrative, and Narrative. Meanwhile, City are hosting Leicester, who have already beaten them once this season.
Then on the last day of the season, Liverpool are at home to Wolves and their lovely football, while City are away at obdurate Brighton. A couple of familiar sounding fixtures there. Banana skins? Who can say.
