The field is getting smaller and smaller, but there are still a few outcomes NOBODY could have predicted.
With just two weeks left to go in the 2018 regular season, the NFL playoff picture is, as Cher Horowitz would say, a full-on Monet. Up close, it’s a big old mess. Only five teams are officially in, just three division titles have been earned, and no one has laid claim to a first-round bye.
That means things could get weird in the final weeks of the season. Thankfully, we like weird.
What’s less fun is when your head starts spinning like you’ve had too many [insert alcoholic beverage of choice] after looking at the current playoff picture and the 1,100 words the NFL dedicates just to its tiebreaking procedures.
You just want to know how your favorite team can defy the odds and make the playoffs. Or how your most hated rival can shit the bed and then you can bask in the schadenfreude. Or maybe you’re just a Jets fan living vicariously through any sort of playoff scenario. Well, we’re here to help.
As we headed into Week 16, we identified some playoff scenarios that probably won’t happen but could, and what it would take to get there.
3 AFC playoff scenarios that are still possible
The Steelers miss the playoffs entirely
A loss to the Saints makes this increasingly likely.
The Ravens are the only other team that can win the AFC North, and there are two ways they can accomplish that. The Ravens would have to either win out against the Chargers and Browns and then the Steelers lose a game, or the Ravens would have to win one game while the Steelers lost to both the Saints and Bengals.
The Ravens already beat the Chargers and the Steelers lost to the Saints, so the possibility remains alive.
There’s still the final wild card spot, though. For that to happen, the Steelers would need the Titans and Colts to tie in Week 17.
In other words, the Steelers are in dangerous territory.
The Texans clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC
The Texans — who, in case you had forgotten, started off the season at 0-3 — still have a path to get the top spot in the AFC, even with their loss to the Eagles this week.
It’s complicated and still unlikely, but here’s the path:
- The Texans beat the Jaguars, but lose to the Eagles. The Chiefs and Chargers both lose out. The Patriots lose a game.
That would set up a three-way 11-5 tie at the top of the AFC. The Chiefs own the divisional tiebreaker over the Chargers, knocking them out of the equation and pitting the Chiefs and Texans against each other. They would have the same conference record (9-3) and they’d have the same record against common opponents (4-1). So then it’d go to the NEXT tiebreaker, which is strength of victory.
The Texans own the stronger SOV right now. If the favorites more or less win over the next two weeks (besides Chiefs/Chargers), then the Texans would maintain their edge.
They would also need the Patriots to lose to the Jets next week, ensuring they wouldn’t finish at 11-5 because New England owns a head-to-head win over Houston.
The Texans get left out of the playoffs
You just got through the Texans’ dream scenario, so now let’s look at the nightmare one. Because even though they’re still (barely) alive for the No. 1 seed, they also haven’t even clinched a spot in the playoffs.
Houston split its season series with both the Colts and the Titans. So if the Texans lose out in games against the Eagles and Jaguars, they’d be 10-6 with a 3-3 record in the AFC South.
That wouldn’t be enough to win the AFC South if either the Colts and Titans — who play each other in Week 17 — win their last two. And both those teams won in Week 16. Both Indianapolis and Tennessee have 3-2 records in division play and if either team reaches 10-6, the division record tiebreaker would boot the Texans.
So would 10-6 be enough to grab the last wild card berth? Probably, but it’s not a guarantee.
The Texans would be ahead of the AFC South team that lost in Week 17, and couldn’t be caught by the Dolphins. So that just leaves the Ravens.
If the Steelers beat both the Saints and Bengals in the last two weeks to finish 10-5-1, they win the AFC North. And if the Ravens beat the Browns, they’d finish 10-6.
Houston and Baltimore would then both have 8-4 records in the conference, and 4-1 records against common opponents. So it’d go to the strength of victory tiebreaker, which would probably go the Texans’ way. That’s no guarantee, though.
8 scenarios that can’t happen anymore
The Seahawks completely implode and miss out
The Seahawks could’ve clinched a playoff berth last week. Instead, they lost to the 49ers for the first time in five years. But they got another chance to officially punch their ticket in Week 16, and did so with a 38-31 win against the Chiefs.
If the Seahawks lost that one, the season would’ve been on the line against the Cardinals in the finale. That’s a team that always gives them problems, for some reason — but the risk of being left out of the playoffs is over now.
Even if they lost, the Seahawks would’ve also needed a little more to go against them:
- The Cowboys win at least one game.
- The Vikings and the Eagles to win out.
The Seahawks only would’ve been on the outside if they went winless in the last two weeks, the Cowboys finished better than 8-8, and the 9-6-1 Vikings and a 9-7 Eagles team jump them. That won’t happen now.
The Cowboys get the No. 3 seed
The Dallas Cowboys were dealt an ugly 23-0 loss at the hands of the Indianapolis Colts last weekend, but they still control their own destiny as we march toward the postseason. That included potentially jumping the Bears for the third seed.
But the Bears’ win over the 49ers guaranteed that wouldn’t happen. The Cowboys are now locked in the No. 4 seed in the NFC and will host a playoff game on Wild Card Weekend
The Eagles win the NFC East, with a little Nick Foles deja vu
The Eagles could have won the NFC East, but they needed the Cowboys to lose to the Buccaneers this week. That didn’t happen. So Philadelphia is eliminated from a division title, but they can still earn a wild card bid.
To get the wild card, they have hope the Vikings lose their final game of the season in order to sneak into the No. 6 spot in the NFC.
Washington makes the playoffs with Josh Johnson
They needed both the Eagles and Vikings to lose out, but both of those teams won on Sunday.
The Panthers make it in, without Cam Newton
It was a long shot that required the Vikings and Eagles to lose this week. The Panthers also had to do their part by winning out. Nope. Carolina lost to Atlanta in Week 16, eliminating them from the playoffs.
The Dolphins win the AFC East
Not gonna happen. The Dolphins did manage to beat the Jaguars this week, but they needed to the Patriots to lose the Bills in order to keep their hopes alive. New England won.
The Browns get in ... thanks to a tie
The good news: The Browns were still alive heading into Week 16! That’s wild after a 1-15 season in 2016 and a winless 2017.
The bad news: It would’ve taken the miracle of all NFL miracles to actually get a spot.
Cleveland’s only shot was if the season ended exactly like this:
- Washington beats the Titans (Week 16)
- Chargers beat the Ravens (Week 16)
- Giants beat the Colts (Week 16)
- Browns beat the Bengals (Week 16)
- Dolphins lose to Jaguars or Bills (Weeks 16/17)
- Browns beat the Ravens (Week 17)
- Titans and Colts tie(Week 17)
Yep. So that didn’t happen.
It’s cool that the Browns even have a chance to dream, though.
The Saints don’t get a first-round bye
Entering Week 16, the Saints were the only 12-win team in the NFL. Now they’re the only 13-win team, and this week’s win over the Steelers gives them the No. 1 seed in the NFC this season.
They locked up the NFC South a couple weeks ago and are virtually guaranteed to never have to play a postseason game outside a dome — the best possible scenario for Drew Brees and a Saints offense that have seen their production dip in recent weeks away from the Superdome.
But they haven’t clinched home field yet, let alone a first-round bye. They can do both this weekend with a win. They could also drop all the way down to the No. 3 spot and be forced to play in the first weekend of January, if these three things happened over the final two weeks:
- They lose out.
- The Rams win out.
- The Bears win out.
The Saints’ remaining games are home against the Steelers and Panthers, a manageable schedule but no cakewalk. If they lost both, they’d fall to 12-4.
The Rams are 11-3, but the Saints own the head-to-head tiebreaker due to their 45-35 win in Week 9. So they would need to finish with a better record than the Saints to pass them in the standings. For the first time during the regular season under Sean McVay, the Rams are on a losing streak, though it’s only two games. Their last two matchups should also get them back on track before the playoffs: at the Cardinals and at home against the 49ers, two teams with fewer combined wins than the Rams had by the end of October.
The Bears would finish at 12-4 if they beat the 49ers and Vikings, both on the road, in the final two weeks. In this scenario, that would leave them with the same record as the Saints. Because the Bears and Saints haven’t played each other this season and they belong to different divisions, the next tiebreaker would be conference record. The Saints would be 9-3 and the Bears would be 10-2.
So the final standings would look like:
- Rams (13-3, conference record: 9-3)
- Bears (12-4, conference record: 10-2)
- Saints (12-4, conference record: 9-3)