Last year, the last spot in the AFC came down to one play. The stage is set for a dramatic finish to the season again in 2018.
The Chiefs and Chargers are the only two teams in the AFC that are guaranteed to be playing in January. The Patriots and Texans will probably lock up their divisions soon, though.
That leaves just two spots truly still up in the air: The AFC North title and the second AFC Wild Card berth.
The Steelers and Ravens will drag race to the finish for the AFC North, and the Colts and Titans will play for a spot in the playoffs.
It’s not nearly as messy as the NFC Wild Card race, with the No. 6 spot essentially down to one division:
Tennessee Titans (9-6): 45 percent chance
Last two games: Colts (home)
The Titans managed to get by Washington in Week 16, a team led by quarterback Josh Johnson. With the win, the Titans’ playoff chances will come down to whether or not they can avenge their previous loss to the Colts.
Marcus Mariota injured his elbow and left in the first half of that Week 11 loss — and he suffered another injury in Week 16 — but the bigger issue against the Colts was that the Titans defense couldn’t do anything. Andrew Luck finished with 297 passing yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 143.8 passer rating. The trio of Marlon Mack, Jordan Wilkins, and Nyheim Hines combined for 105 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
If the Colts offense rolls again, the Titans’ season will end in Week 17.
Indianapolis Colts (9-6): 45 percent chance
Last two games: Titans (road)
The Colts are one of the hottest teams in the NFL with eight wins in their last nine games — including victories over the Texans and Cowboys, two likely playoff teams, in the back-to-back weeks. But they nearly lost that momentum in Week 16.
The Giants came into their matchup with Indianapolis on a 4-2 heater since the start of November, and they certainly looked like the better team early at Lucas Oil Stadium. New York took a 14-0 first quarter lead and led 27-21 with one minute left in the game before Andrew Luck found Chester Rogers for a game-winning touchdown that kept Indy’s postseason hopes alive.
Now the Colts could be playing for a spot in the postseason in Week 17 against the Titans, who they already destroyed 38-10 last month.
Houston Texans (10-5): 10 percent chance
Last game: Jaguars (home)
The Texans already clinched a spot in the playoffs, but they hope it isn’t this one. As long as they beat the 5-10 Jaguars in their season finale next week, it won’t be.
But if Houston loses, it’d drop them to 10-6 and into the wild card berth behind whichever team wins the AFC South.
The Texans already beat the Jaguars, 20-7, earlier in the year and would really be shooting themselves in the foot if they couldn’t do it again.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6-1): 0.001 percent chance
Last game:Bengals (home)
Like the Ravens, the tiny chance at grabbing the No. 6 seed doesn’t mean the Steelers have no chance at making the playoffs. It just means the No. 6 seed isn’t in their future.
Luckily for the Steelers, a home game against the Bengals is a comfortable finish to the year. Get that win and they’ll be rooting for the Ravens to lose to the Browns, because the path to the wild card involves the Titans and Colts tying in Week 17. That won’t happen.
Eliminated: Baltimore Ravens
Last game: Browns (home)
The word “Eliminated” may look like a bad thing for the Ravens, but it’s really just a reflection of the fact that their only path to the playoffs is as AFC North champion. Win next week against the Browns and they’ve got the division crown. Lose and it’s probably all over.
The Ravens went to Los Angeles and absolutely bludgeoned the Chargers’ offense on their way to a 22-10 victory. They’ll need to do the same against a red-hot Browns team.
But Baltimore is on a bit of a roll of its own too. Beating the Chargers wasn’t a daunting slate for rookie Lamar Jackson, who’s been destroying teams with his legs.
Eliminated: Miami Dolphins
Last game:Bills (road)
If the Dolphins improved to 9-7 with two wins to close out the year, they would have had a good shot. Those were winnable games too, against Jacksonville and Buffalo. But Ryan Tannehill threw a backbreaking pick six, and the return of Blake Bortles proved too much for the Dolphins to overcome. That means at least four of the five teams to beat the Patriots this season will miss the playoffs.
Eliminated: Cleveland Browns
Last game: Ravens (road)
Sorry Browns, it’s just not going to happen. They needed Tennessee to lose to Washington on Saturday, but the Titans managed to win, sinking Cleveland’s playoff hopes.
To have a chance, the Browns would have needed the following results:
- Washington beats the Titans (Week 16) (Nope).
- Chargers beat the Ravens (Week 16)
- Giants beat the Colts (Week 16)
- Browns beat the Bengals (Week 16)
- Dolphins lose to Jaguars or Bills (Weeks 16/17)
- Browns beat the Ravens (Week 17)
- Titans and Colts tie (Week 17)
That’s right, the cherry on top of that perfect scenario was a tie between the Colts and Titans in Week 17. In this hypothetical, both Indianapolis and Tennessee will be battling for a final spot in the playoffs, but somehow play too conservatively to break a tie in overtime. It was a scenario that was never happening.
If anything, giving the Browns a one-in-100,000 chance at making the playoffs might’ve be generous. But hey, they were alive until Week 16. That’s a welcomed change after a winless season last year.
The race for the final spot in the AFC will come down to the last day of the regular season.
Last year, that final spot in the AFC came all the way down to one play. Andy Dalton and Tyler Boyd connected on a last-minute, 49-yard touchdown to secure a 22-16 win over the Ravens. That booted Baltimore from the AFC bracket, and let the Bills sneak in.
If we’re lucky, the trio of AFC South teams will give us some similar drama this time around too.