Here are picks for all 40 bowl games, updated as key games go final in college football’s final Saturday.

Each week, I update a board of projected winners for every FBS game, tally up records, and guess what the Playoff committee and bowl committees would do with the results. Things get closer and closer to eventual accuracy, but more importantly, it’s some weekly fun!

Below, projections for all 40 2018 bowl games. I’ll update as needed throughout college football’s final Saturday before Selection Sunday.

First, the College Football Playoff

• Cotton (Arlington, Texas): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma
• Orange (Miami): No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
• Championship (Santa Clara, California): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Clemson

Notre Dame is in. Alabama and Clemson are heavy favorites to win their conference titles.

Barring upsets, the fourth spot will come down to Ohio State or Oklahoma. I think OU enters with the better case, but final scores can obviously change that in the committee’s mind.

The No. 1 seed is determined by geographic proximity to campus.

Next: the rest of the New Year’s Six

Automatic bids:

• Rose (Pasadena, California): Ohio State vs. Washington
• Sugar (New Orleans): Texas vs. Georgia

Pac-12 champ Washington is in the Rose. The other spot will either go to a Big Ten champ Northwestern, non-Playoff Ohio State, or Michigan (if Ohio State makes the Playoff).

The Sugar will either be Texas or Oklahoma. The Big 12’s rules mean the conference runner-up is next in line, eliminating West Virginia. Georgia’s in the Sugar unless it beats Bama. If the SEC gets two teams in the Playoff, Florida’s in the Sugar.

At-large bids:

• Peach (Atlanta): Florida vs. UCF
• Fiesta (Glendale, Arizona): LSU vs. Michigan

It’s hard to see top-10 Florida, LSU, and Michigan falling out of the NY6.

If UCF loses the AAC title game, then the Group of 5’s Fiesta/Peach bid will go to the Mountain West champ. Remember, it’s only for conference champions.

The committee would prefer not to send UCF to a repeat Peach Bowl, but I think Florida-UCF is hot enough of a matchup to merit breaking that “rule.” LSU vs. Michigan is a natural HELMET MATCHUP anyway, the kind the committee strives to create, and do we really want to see yet another Florida-Michigan game? So flip the locations if you really want, but I feel good about these pairings.

And now, everything else

• Citrus (Orlando): Penn State vs. Kentucky
• Outback (Tampa): Iowa vs. Mississippi State
• Gator (Jacksonville): Miami vs. Texas A&M
• Holiday (San Diego): Northwestern vs. Oregon
• Liberty (Memphis): Oklahoma State vs. Vanderbilt
• Military (Annapolis, MD): Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech
• Sun (El Paso): Pitt vs. Arizona State
• Belk (Charlotte): Virginia vs. South Carolina
• Alamo (San Antonio): West Virginia vs. Washington State
• Arizona (Tucson): San Diego State vs. Arkansas State
• Camping World (Orlando): NC State vs. Iowa State
• Music City (Nashville): Michigan State vs. Missouri
• Texas (Houston): TCU vs. Auburn
• Pinstripe (New York City): Syracuse vs. Purdue
• Independence (Shreveport, LA): Boston College vs. BYU*
• Cheez-It (Phoenix): Baylor vs. Stanford
• Quick Lane (Detroit): Wake Forest vs. Wisconsin
• First Responders (Dallas): Duke* vs. North Texas
• Redbox (Santa Clara, CA): Minnesota vs. Utah
• Hawaii: Louisiana Tech vs. Hawaii
• Dollar General (Mobile): Buffalo vs. Troy
• Armed Forces (Fort Worth): Army* vs. Nevada*
• Birmingham: Memphis vs. UAB*
• Potato (Boise): NIU vs. Utah State*
• Bahamas: FIU vs. Toledo
• Gasparilla (Tampa): USF vs. Virginia Tech
• Frisco (TX): Temple vs. Ohio
• Boca Raton: Houston vs. MTSU
• New Orleans: Southern Miss vs. Appalachian State
• Camellia (Montgomery, AL): WMU vs. Georgia Southern
• Las Vegas: Fresno State vs. Cal
• Cure (Orlando): Tulane vs. UL Lafayette
• New Mexico (Albuquerque): Marshall vs. Boise State

* = Taking another conference’s unfilled bid.

We officially have too many bowl-eligible teams. I can’t find spots for EMU, Miami (Ohio), ULM, or Wyoming, thanks in part to Virginia Tech now taking a spot. However, almost any lower-tier bowl with MAC or Mountain West ties could take those teams.

The one bid where I really surprised myself here: Wisconsin down in the Quick Lane. That’s a big draw of a team, but lots of other teams in its proximity had more exciting seasons. We’ll see.

As always, remember bowl bids are not strictly based on merit. A few conferences have rules that prevent bowls from taking teams with clearly lesser records over more deserving teams, but bowls mostly care about butts in seats. If you beat a bigger program that’s closer to a bowl both of you want, you’re not guaranteed to get it.