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Here are picks for all 40 bowl games, updated after this weekend’s results.
Each week, I update a board of projected winners for every FBS game, tally up records, and guess what the Playoff committee and bowl committees would do with the results. Things get closer and closer to eventual accuracy as Selection Sunday nears, but more importantly, it’s some weekly fun!
Below, projections for all 40 2018 bowl games. A lot of these will change dramatically over the next month,soif you don’t like where your team is listed, I bet a few wins on the field will change things! Let’s plug in Rivalry Weekend.
First, the College Football Playoff
- Cotton (Arlington, TX): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State
- Orange (Miami): No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
- Championship (Santa Clara, CA): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Clemson
Not automatically subbing Ohio State in for Michigan. A 12-1 Buckeye resume would look a bit different than a 12-1 Wolverine resume would’ve, though that surprise beatdown surely covered a ton of ground. I think the decisive factors for the committee in picking Ohio State over Oklahoma will be OU’s terrible defense and OSU’s big win over Michigan, even though I think OU might end up with the better overall case.
Otherwise:
Notre Dame has punched its ticket a week early, as Oklahoma did in 2015, and without winning a conference, as Alabama and Ohio State have both done before. Bama’s quite possibly already clinched a spot. And Clemson merely needs to beat Pitt, which has no point other than shocking No. 2 teams late in seasons.
Next: the rest of the New Year’s Six
- Sugar (New Orleans): Oklahoma vs. Georgia
- Rose (Pasadena, CA): Michigan vs. Washington
- Peach (Atlanta): Florida vs. UCF
- Fiesta (Glendale, AZ): LSU vs. Washington State
Before you yell at me about excluding Penn State or Texas: I’ll tweak these on Tuesday when the committee releases its rankings, if it seems I’ve guessed wrong. There’s just no way to know how far LSU and Washington State will fall after losing, but I’m guessing it won’t be all that far. Wazzu’s a scarce 10-win Power 5 team, and LSU’s latest loss was one of the most forgivable in football history.
The Sugar and Rose are based on conference ties. Barring upsets, they’re more or less locked in.
And remember: UCF must beat Memphis in order to make it. The Group of 5’s highest-ranked conference champion gets a NY6 bid. If Memphis beats a UCF that’s without QB McKenzie Milton, then the Fresno-Boise winner is in the Fiesta ... unless you think the committee’s keeping a 10-1 non-power in the top 12.
And now, everything else
- Citrus (Orlando): Penn State vs. Kentucky
- Outback (Tampa): Iowa vs. Texas A&M
- Gator (Jacksonville): Michigan State vs. South Carolina
- Holiday (San Diego): Northwestern vs. Oregon
- Liberty (Memphis): Oklahoma State vs. Auburn
- Military (Annapolis, MD): Cincinnati vs. Boston College
- Sun (El Paso): Virginia vs. Cal
- Belk (Charlotte): Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt
- Alamo (San Antonio): Texas vs. Utah
- Arizona (Tucson): San Diego State vs. ULM
- Camping World (Orlando): Syracuse vs. West Virginia
- Music City (Nashville): NC State vs. Missouri
- Texas (Houston): Iowa State vs. Mississippi State
- Pinstripe (New York City): Pitt vs. Minnesota
- Independence (Shreveport, LA): Duke vs. Arkansas State*
- Cheez-It (Phoenix): TCU vs. Utah State*
- Quick Lane (Detroit): Wake Forest vs. Purdue
- SERVPRO (Dallas): BYU* vs. North Texas
- Redbox (Santa Clara, CA): Wisconsin vs. Arizona State
- Hawaii: Southern Miss vs. Hawaii
- Dollar General (Mobile): Buffalo vs. Georgia Southern
- Armed Forces (Fort Worth): Army* vs. Baylor
- Birmingham: Houston vs. UAB*
- Potato (Boise): Toledo vs. Nevada
- Bahamas: FIU vs. NIU
- Gasparilla (Tampa): USF vs. Miami
- Frisco (TX): Tulane vs. Ohio
- Boca Raton: Memphis vs. MTSU
- New Orleans: Louisiana Tech vs. Appalachian State
- Camellia (Montgomery, AL): WMU vs. Troy
- Las Vegas: Fresno State vs. Stanford
- Cure (Orlando): Temple vs. UL Lafayette
- New Mexico (Albuquerque): Marshall vs. Boise State
* = Taking another conference’s unfilled bid.
We officially have too many bowl-eligible teams. I can’t find spots for EMU, Miami (Ohio), or Wyoming, and that’s before Virginia Tech potentially takes a spot by beating Marshall next week.
As always, remember bowl bids are not strictly based on merit. A few conferences have rules that prevent bowls from taking teams with clearly lesser records over more deserving teams, but bowls mostly care about butts in seats. If you beat a bigger program that’s closer to a bowl both of you want, you’re not guaranteed to get it.