Keeping track of top-25 results, with postseason notes on each game as it goes final.

Below, we’re keeping track of each top-25 game’s impact, both before and after final scores, mostly paying attention to CFP committee business, not highlights and stuff.

Remember the things the committee has mostly demonstrated it rewards: wins over final top-25 teams, wins over bowl teams, road wins, dominant wins, weirdly excusable losses, being Alabama, and not being a mid-major. It does not care what your opponent’s ranking was at kickoff.

Final scores in bold.

Probably important

Games in which the winning team should have a high-quality victory by season’s end or games that will decide a Power 5 division race. Or: really meaningful upsets.

• No. 1 Alabama vs. Auburn: For the second year in a row, the Tide might clinch a spot regardless of what happens in conference title weekend. Last year, they did that without even winning this game.
• No. 2 Clemson vs. South Carolina: With that schedule, Clemson can’t necessarily afford a loss. But with that level of dominance so far, maybe Clemson can.
• No. 3 Notre Dame at USC: If the Irish win: Playoff. If they lose: Peach or Fiesta. USC can steal bowl eligibility or quite possibly get Clay Helton fired.
• No. 4 Michigan at No. 10 Ohio State: WHEW, BUDDY. Either Michigan’s a win over Northwestern away from the Playoff and being rid of The Narratives for quite a while, or the flailing Buckeyes immediately right themselves by wrecking the Wolverines’ best season since the last time the Buckeyes did that. Or the time before. Ohio State’s Playoff case wouldn’t be as rock solid, but it’d be squarely in the debate.
• No. 5 Georgia vs. Georgia Tech: The apocalypse scenario — UGA beats Bama in the SEC title game and maybe knocks the Big Ten or whoever out of the Playoff — is only on the table if the Dawgs don’t trip over the flexbone.
• No. 6 Oklahoma at No. 13 West Virginia: Either OU’s in the Big 12 Championship, probably in a Red River Rematch, or the Big 12 is out of the Playoff. WVU can angle to swipe a spot in the New Year’s Six.
• No. 7 LSU at No. 22 Texas A&M: With a win, the Tigers clinch a spot in either the Peach or Fiesta, or possibly even the Sugar (if two SEC teams make the CFP). They could still make it with a loss, but they’d surely fall behind Florida in that order. Or A&M could add some clout to its claim for a better SEC bowl.
• No. 8 Washington State vs. No. 16 Washington: The winner is the Pac-12 North champ, one game against Utah away from the Rose Bowl. If WSU wins, some chaos could theoretically lead to a Playoff bid.
• No. 14 Texas 24, Kansas 17: Ugly, but the Horns are going to the Big 12 Championship with a Sugar Bowl autobid on the line.

Maybe important

Games in which the winner should have something to show for it, such as at least a win over a decent bowl team.

• No. 11 Florida at Florida State: With a win, the Gators probably make the Peach or Fiesta. They might be happier about ending FSU’s nation-leading bowl streak than about their own bowl destination, though. Meanwhile, the Noles can save their streak, ease concerns about Willie Taggart, and drop the Gators to the Outback Bowls of the world.
• No. 12 Penn State vs. Maryland: The committee likes Penn State more than I’d anticipated, meaning PSU has a great shot at the Peach or Fiesta. Blowing out the Terps could just about seal it, unless an upset eliminates a spot.
• No. 17 Utah vs. BYU: The Utes’ only path to the NY6 is by winning the Pac-12, and BYU’s already guaranteed an at-large bid to some bowl somewhere. Bowl quality for both could vary based on who wins this. WSU’s Playoff hopes need, among other things, a well-ranked Utah.
• No. 18 Mississippi State 35, Ole Miss 3: MSU probably secures an above-average SEC bowl. This also ensures a highly ranked win for Bama, LSU, Florida, and Kentucky. What value!
• No. 20 Syracuse at Boston College: Could swing some ACC bowl positioning. The glory of the Camping World Bowl could be in play.
• No. 25 Iowa State vs. Kansas State: K-State’s playing for a bowl bid. ISU can add to its claim for a decent Big 12 bowl.

Important for the Group of 5 race

Since the committee’s showed for years that non-power teams have a REALLY long path to the Playoff, let’s have a separate section for the race to be the top-ranked mid-major champ.

• No. 9 UCF 38, USF 10: The undefeated Knights only need to beat Memphis in order to clinch the New Year’s Six despite losing star QB Milton McKenzie to an awful knee injury. However, a loss to Memphis would likely give the NY6 nod to the Mountain West champ — remember, the autobid is for the highest-ranked non-power champ.
• Memphis 52, Houston 31: The four-loss Tigers get UCF yet again, with a chance to knock the conference out of the New Year’s Six.
• No. 21 Utah State at No. 23 Boise State: The winner gets Fresno State in the MWC title game and is the only team with any hope of overtaking a one-loss UCF for a NY6 bid.

Probably not important

The committee tries not to care much about your wins over teams that finish with bad records, though you can get some credit for winning on the road or really laying it to folks. So for the ranked teams here: just don’t lose!

• No. 15 Kentucky vs. Louisville: I don’t think UK can make the NY6, and Louisville is winding down a failed season. This could decide whether Kentucky gets a bowl like the Citrus or a bowl like the Belk, though.
• No. 19 Northwestern vs. Illinois: The Wildcats have clinched the Big Ten West. They’re not making a NY6 bowl unless they win the Big Ten. An 8-5 Northwestern whose fans just traveled to Indianapolis might not be a hot target for a top B1G bowl like the Citrus. But if the Illini pulled the upset, the Big Ten title game might not add much at all to Michigan’s/Ohio State’s resume. There’s a scenario in which Illinois knocks the Big Ten out of the Playoff, yes.
• No. 24 Pitt at Miami: Pitt could steal a Peach/Fiesta spot by beating Clemson, but can’t fall below the Sun in the ACC’s bowl order, due to winning a division.