Retired NFL lineman and gambling aficionado Geoff Schwartz is back with his can’t miss picks for Week 9.
We are now past the mid point of the season, heading into Week 9. At first glance, it’s an odd looking week for point spreads, but I’ll find y’all some value this weekend.
Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers
This line is currently off the board at casinos and offshore websites at the moment after news broke that the Niners starting quarterback, and former backup quarterback, C.J. Beathard might miss the Thursday night game with a wrist injury.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said yesterday that Beathard had issues even holding onto the football. Yikes. If he can’t go, that means the Niners are rolling with third-string quarterback Nick Mullins (yes, that Nick Mullins, duh). That’s no bueno for the 49ers, so you need to hammer the Raiders when the line gets back up.
Even before this news broke, I didn’t get this line. The 49ers shouldn’t be a favorite over anyone, let alone laying a full field goal. You can’t give the Niners an edge for home field as the Raiders are nearby and they’ll jam the stadium with silver and black.
The Raiders might be lacking in overall talent at certain positions but they have the clear advantage at quarterback and can score points. They are 12th in yards per play. Where they struggle is in the red zone. But guess who’s one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the red zone? Yep, the Niners. I think the Raiders score loads of points.
So can the Niners score enough points against a paltry Raiders defense? Not with a third-string quarterback. I don’t think this game is close and when the line comes out, you need to get on the Raiders big time.
Tampa Bay Bucs +6.5 at Carolina Panthers
Sit tight with this number and see if it climbs back to 7 or even maybe 7.5.
I’m betting on Fitz Magic in this NFC South divisional game. Yes, the Panthers are playing well, but you’re getting an inflated line off the Panthers big win last weekend against the Ravens.
With Ryan Fitzpatrick back in charge of the offense they will put up points. Lots of points. Tampa Bay is seventh in points per game, and when Fitz has started a game, the Bucs have scored 48, 27, 27, yikes! They scored 18 second-half points at Cincinnati last week when Fitz came into the game.
If the Panthers have a weakness on defense, their passing defense specifically. So I think Tampa scores enough points to make this game close, and it smells like a backdoor cover to me.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints -1.5
This is the weekend the Rams lose. Plain and simple. The Rams have been close to getting their first loss of the season and have avoided it for a few weeks. They won’t be able to avoid the Saints’ offensive output that’s coming on Sunday. Take the Saints.
Bonus pick — I’m 5-1 this season when I take an under team total. I hit one on Monday Night Football with the Bills under 16.5 points. These totals post on Sunday mornings, so I can’t give y’all a great number now. But look at the Bills’ team total again and possibly the Jets on the road against Miami.