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The early betting lines often allow for the most value.
All wagers at -110 odds and for 1 unit unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
Season record: 83-68 (+$805)
Last week I went 17-13-1. If I can do that every week I’ll quit sports writing and move to Vegas.
I often tell readers that the best bets can be found in the opening lines on Sunday afternoons. Lines tend to be sharper after they’ve been bet all week. Most of my plays are made early in the week. Note that some of the lines below have since changed.
Of course, if you’re trying to bet thousands of dollars on each game, the low limits (typically $250-500 max bets per game) early in the week can be a hindrance, but I’m figuring most of my readership is playing $100 per game or less.
Because I make these wagers throughout the week, I order them by when they were made.
Picks made Thursday, October 18
Most of my picks are moving in the right direction, which suggests another big week is coming. Today, four came to the right side for me, so I am adding them.
- Memphis +10 at Missouri: I am skeptical of Memphis bouncing back after its disappointing loss to Missouri, but at double digits I have to play this.
- UTSA +17.5 (-105) at Southern Miss: UTSA has had some bad turnover luck in its uglier losses. I think the Road Runners are an improving team.
- Akron at Kent State +5 (+100): I’ve successfully been on Akron a few times this year, but this is too many points to lay to an improving Kent state team.
- Maryland at Iowa -9.5: I waited most of the week for this number to drop under 10. I like how the Hawkeyes limit big plays, which is how Maryland wants to move the football.
Picks made Monday, October 15
I am pleased with the direction that most of my Sunday picks have moved. Here are four more I hit today.
- Arizona at UCLA -7: The Bruins are moving in the right direction, while Arizona is not and it has major QB uncertainty.
- Charlotte +17 at Middle Tennessee State: Even if QB Brent Stockstill plays for MTSU, I still like Charlotte.
- Rice at FIU Under 54: Rice’s offense is dreadful. The implied score based on this and the Vegas odds is 39-15, and I think 35-10 is more likely.
- N.C. State at Clemson Over 56: Both teams can really throw the football. And both defenses have had some issues with big plays.
Picks made Sunday, October 14
- Mississippi State +9 at LSU: With Mississippi State’s defense, I love getting over a touchdown here. And against Auburn, the Bulldogs finally figured out that QB Nick Fitzgerald should run and not throw.
- Michigan -5 at Michigan State: I know the trends say that Michigan State owns Michigan under Mark Dantonio. But Michigan is finally breaking out the run game with Shea Patterson.
- Oregon at Washington State +1: What a perfect trap spot. Oregon is riding high off its overtime win against Washington, and it has to go face a Cougars squad off a bye.
- Ohio State at Purdue +14.5: Ohio State’s defense does not get stops like it usually does. Purdue can really score.
- Minnesota +7 at Nebraska: I really thought I would be on Nebraska here. I thought the game would come out as a PK, and that I would be on Big Red. With my Power Number as Minnesota +3.5, this is an auto-bet.
- Colorado State +26 at Boise State (Friday): Colorado State has improved in recent weeks.
- UNLV +12 at Air Force (Friday): Air Force has been good to the column this year, and I have been fading UNLV recently, but this feels like an overreaction.
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky -10.5: Florida would have blown out Vanderbilt except for turnovers. I like Kentucky’s physicality coming off a bye.
- Eastern Michigan -1.5 at Ball State: Ball State has been good to the column, but I’ll trust Eastern Michigan’s stout defense.
- Cincinnati +3.5 at Temple: Cincinnati is an improved football team coming off a bye. I’ll gladly take points in a defensive battle.
- FAU at Marshall -1: The Thundering Herd have been improving and this is a tough trip for FAU.
- UTEP +27 at Louisiana Tech: This is an enormous number and I thought it would be a full touchdown less. This is not an endorsement of UTEP as a team, but a reminder that the spread is the ultimate equalizer.
- Georgia Southern at New Mexico State +14.5: GaSo has a huge look-ahead spot here with a game against Appalachian State next Thursday on short rest.
- Northwestern at Rutgers +21.5: 21.5 is just a ton for the Wildcats’ offense to lay on the road. I must like Rutgers more than everyone else, because I bet them last week, lost, adjusted my power number, and am on them again.
- Miami (OH) +12.5 at Army: Army has been playing extremely well of late, but so has Miami (OH). Double digits feels like a lot here.
- Texas State +11 at Louisiana Monroe: Texas State’s defense looks to have improved some. Louisiana Monroe doesn’t stop anyone.
- San Jose State +27 at San Diego State: SJSU looked terrible against Army, but this is such a big number and feels like an overreaction.
- Nevada at Hawaii -1: Nevada is off tough loss to Boise State and now must head to the island, where Hawaii is tough to beat.
- Wake Forest +10.5 at Florida State: I do not trust this FSU team to lay double digits against any team in the ACC, home or away.
Pick made August 21
- N.C. State +19.5 at Clemson: I made this as one of my GOY futures line picks.
Ongoing Futures/Props
I made 26 futures or prop bets which I published between May and August. My current record on these is 2-2, with a profit of $-20. That is reflected in the overall total above. My reasoning for making them can be found at the link. Updated analysis to come later in the week.